In Texas-Hold'em poker, 72o is about the worst possible starting hand, because it has very low potential for forming strong combinations when the next cards are turned up.
It consists of a seven and a two of differing suits (“o” for offsuit), with no possibility of forming a straight or flush. Consequently, it’s unlikely to improve significantly as the community cards are revealed, making it an extremely weak hand to play*.
In other words, if you’re going to bet the farm on a hand like this you have to be both desperate and a great bluffer.
Yet that’s precisely where the airlines are starting from when it comes to being environmentally sustainable. They’re holding a 72o hand.
The industry is becoming increasingly concerned as reality bites - and it’s not just the airlines’ fortune on the table, it’s their very existence.
And unfortunately, despite aiming for zero carbon by 2050, there’s really not a lot they can do to achieve it, with current technology anyway. Certainly, not much is going to happen before 2030.
With the odds so heavily stacked against them, the prospects are perplexing and their bluff is being called.
The KLM judgment creates a confronting milestone
Last month’s Dutch District court decision on KLM’s alleged greenwashing in its “Fly Responsibly” campaign has steeply raised the stakes. The judgment has reverberated around the world. The airlines’ bluff is being called.
In the judgment, seemingly innocuous statements, used by many airlines as a matter of course, were dismantled one by one as being no more than greenwashing.
Overall, the court stated KLM was painting “too rosy a picture” of what were really very marginal reductions in its environmental impact, instead implying flying with KLM was becoming sustainable.
SAFs, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, take the real beating
The court took particular exception to the proposed role of SAF, the cornerstone of the industry’s emission reduction strategies. As KLM had stated, “by far the largest contribution (to reducing emissions) will be made by SAF".
The judgment considered “This paints too rosy a picture, as it follows from the explanations accompanying the measures that they are currently only marginally reducing CO2 emissions and the negative environmental aspects of flying.”
It’s not such an unlikely view. After all it’s supported by one of the industry’s most respected leaders, Sir Tim Clark of Emirates. Speaking recently on Australia’s SkyTV, he argued that “really, the future is determined by technology that looks at alternative means than what we’re doing.”
There are basically three strings to the airlines’ emissions bow: using offsets, buying new aircraft/flying more efficiently and using SAFs.
Offsets are questionable at best, new aircraft will only slowly turn things around, and SAFs can only be “marginally” effective, as the court found.
The prospect of “business as usual” growth is also under attack
The judgment went on to add “KLM fails to mention, crucially, that both KLM and the aviation industry are counting on further ‘business as usual’ growth in air traffic, something that is completely contrary to the Paris target.
“Such growth is the opposite of KLM's ‘Fly Responsibly’ claim and which it uses as a brand and logo - a claim that is both an invitation to the public and a eulogy about KLM's own responsibility.”
… as are discount fares
The court also took exception to KLM advertising cheap flights when it told passengers booking the special bargains that, if they chose to make a contribution towards KLM's cost of adding SAF, KLM would "double" that amount.
The court considered this a logical contradiction: “On balance, however, this only encourages more flying and puts far more CO2 into the atmosphere than if someone were to pass up this discount offer.”
This is a conundrum that has been around for some time. It implies fares should be higher – but just for the elite? Similarly, it leans towards promoting high cost full-service airlines rather than the new generation of low cost carriers. Removing cheap fares would have massive financial and social implications right across the travel and tourism industries.
Now airlines will have to take care with their greenwashing efforts - and others will too
This judgment doesn’t create a formal legal precedent, but it will undoubtedly be used widely as a benchmark by environmental activists, especially as it seems a reasonable statement of what is obvious to many. It has already reverberated around the world. Meanwhile there are already greenwashing complaints against 17 other airlines at the European Commission alone.
National competition bodies around the world collude frequently on legal changes and they too will all be watching with great interest. The industry is on notice. Expect plenty more judgments.
As a result, most sensible airline marketing departments will have to rethink what they say about their green credentials. They won’t want to risk being dragged through the courts by organisations like FossilFree and Client Earth, the proponents in the KLM case. KLM wasn’t fined, but it will have to avoid any repetition. The court issued a veiled warning to KLM to be “honest and concrete” in its future marketing efforts.
The ripples will undoubtedly spread even more widely, to other aviation companies spruiking their credentials. It’s not a tsunami yet, but….
It will be wake up time for airports too, among others.
Is anyone really surprised?
The judgment eminently reflects how most impartial observers would view airline claims about emission reduction. It was only a matter of time before the industry’s weak 72o bluff was called.
But avoiding greenwashing is one thing - and this judgment steeply tilts the balance on what is acceptable.
What to do to maintain an aviation industry which is growing to meet fundamental global needs is quite another matter. A pair of aces (or sevens) might emerge eventually, like green hydrogen, electric power, carbon capture or whatever, but that won’t make a difference before 2030.
The world isn’t going to accept the promise of a new technology in ten years’ time – particularly if plans are for business growth as usual.
Notes:
Emissions: According to airline emissions data provider Envest Global, in 2023, KLM produced 92.7 tonnes of CO2 per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK), slightly higher than Lufthansa's 91.3 tonnes, but below British Airways' 101.1 tonnes. Factoring in other KPIs, such as average load factor and fleet age, KLM received only a mid-range 'Silver'; sustainability rating from Envest - trailing its European competitors Aer Lingus, Eurowings, Iberia, SWISS, TAP Air Portugal and Virgin Atlantic who held 'Gold' ratings.
KLM has an average fleet age of 14 years; only its 787s are younger than 14 years old. A handful of European low-cost carriers including Jet2.com, Norwegian, Ryanair and Wizz Air currently hold the top tier 'Platinum' rating from Envest for environmental sustainability.
Texas Hold'Em: * Additionally, if a player does make a pair with this hand, it is likely to be a low pair, which can easily be beaten by higher pairs or other stronger hands. Overall, the low potential for improvement and the likelihood of being dominated by other hands make 72o the weakest starting hand in Texas Hold'em Poker. Source: Quora
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